By Justin DiLoro / Billswire.ustoday.com
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen enters his second professional season as the unquestioned No. 1 quarterback on the team’s depth chart. In fact, it’s one of the few positions of certainty on the offensive side of the ball for the Bills.
Buffalo’s offseason plan centered on finding better weapons to surround Allen. Skill position players such as John Brown, Cole Beasley, and Tyler Kroft provide Allen with an upgrade in the passing game’s playmakers spots. In addition, the Bills signed a slew of offensive linemen in free agency to compete for starting jobs, and didn’t spot there once the NFL draft rolled around. The combination of linemen should be an improvement over last year’s unit, if the group can mesh quickly.
The Bills added three Day 2 draft picks, offensive linemen Cody Ford, tight end Dawson Knox and running back Devin Singletary, to the roster to bolster the offense in the short and long-term.
Oh, and the team hired a former quarterback as the team’s quarterbacks coach. Welcome, Ken Dorsey.
Now that the offseason has focused on Allen, it’s now time to consider to what degree these weapons can help the quarterback. In turn, the second-year signal caller needs to take a major step forward at the helm of the offense.
What could this look like for Allen?
Allen’s rookie season saw some remarkable highlights (re: Anthony Barr used as a hurdle) and some major struggles (re: Lambeau Field performance). Nevertheless, inconsistency is expected of a quarterback adjusting to the pro game — you have to give him some leeway in the transition.
Allen threw for 2,074 passing yards in 12 games. In his 11 starts, Allen averaged 181.8 passing yards. His touchdown-to-interception ratio, while it improved as the season continued, still saw more interceptions than touchdowns by the season’s conclusion. On the plus side, Allen scored eight rushing touchdowns and in games be both started and finished, the QB had a 5-5 overall record.
Now entering year two, what should we expect from Allen?
First, let’s do a little comparison with other quarterbacks. Twenty-nine quarterbacks averaged at least 200 passing yards per game. Additionally, of 33 quarterbacks who started at least eight games, 29 threw more touchdowns than games started (Allen, Josh Rosen, Marcus Mariota, and Alex Smith meet this mark).
Or, let’s look at it this way: Is Josh Allen better than Blake Bortles? For Buffalo’s sake, the answer better be a resounding yes.
Bortles stat line for 2018: 13 touchdown passes, 11 interceptions thrown, 209.1-yard average passing yards per game. Bortles started 12 games last year and played in 13 overall. If Bortles were to average this number of the entire season, he would have finished with 3,346 yards passing.
Success can be found without throwing for a massive amount of yards. Russell Wilson, who just signed the most lucrative contract in NFL history, averaged 215.5 yards per game last year. Wilson’s penchant to throw touchdowns (35) and keep the ball out of defenders’ hands (seven interceptions), is ultimately what makes him special.
With Allen, it’s not unreasonable to expect him to approach Bortles-like numbers. With better receivers and a stronger grasp of the professional game in his second year, the Wyoming product should improve upon his anticipation for routes, which should improve completion percentage as well.
Thus, it’s realistic to see Allen average more than 200 yards per game and improve upon his touchdown-to-interception ratio. Let’s also say that Allen will not have a sub-100-yard passing game next year, even though he had two such games in his rookie season.
Thus, a conservatively realistic stat line for Allen is a season of 3,300 passing yards, 16 touchdown passes, 12 interceptions thrown, and completing 56-percent of his passes. His rushing numbers may take a step back, but he could still rush for about 300-400 yards on the year.
While we are not expected a Jared Goff jump in production from season one to season two for Allen, we should expect some meaningful progress for the player.
Now, wins trump stats any day of the week. However, the better Allen plays, the more likely he will rack up some positive stats and in turn, Buffalo will take some W’s.
This should be the floor for Allen. There are obviously extenuating factors (such as an injury) that could take him off this course. Nevertheless, it’s sensible to expect this much from Allen during his second season with Buffalo.