By Kyle Silagyi / Billswire.usatoday.com
If you listened closely enough, you likely could have heard a collective sigh in Western New York as you woke up on the morning of Jan. 5.
A feeling of dread lingered over the region like a lake effect cloud on the morning after the Buffalo Bills’ wild-card loss to the Houston Texans.
It can perhaps best be described as the ultimate Bills hangover.
Buffalo held a two-score lead over the Texans in the second half of the contest, at one point looking as though it was going to exit NRG Stadium with its first postseason win of the millennium.
What it instead left with was a 22-19 loss and a 25-year postseason-winless streak still intact.
Though the thought of the Bills’ postseason collapse is still fresh in the collective mind of the Buffalo faithful, it’s difficult to not be excited about the team’s future. Coming off a 10-6 season with north of $88 million in salary-cap space, it’s clear that the Bills will be eager to build upon their success in the offseason.
And here’s how they should do so.
Re-sign players
Buffalo is in the incredibly advantageous position of having a talented team with the majority of its core playmakers on rookie contracts.
All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White is slated to have a cap hit of just $3.2 million next season, according to OverTheCap. Middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds will have a cap hit of just $3.4 million. Quarterback Josh Allen, who showed flashes of brilliance in his sophomore campaign, will account for just $5.7 million of the team’s salary cap next year.
The fact that the majority of their core players are on rookie or incredibly team-friendly deals gives the Bills the flexibility to re-sign role players, something that should result in the re-signing of defensive tackle Jordan Phillips.
Phillips was near-dominant in his first full season in Buffalo, notching a career-high 9.5 sacks while also setting a career-high in tackles (31). Despite playing on a defensive line that features heavy rotation, he took over as the team’s starting three-technique in Week 9, a testament to the progress he made throughout his fifth professional season.
Given his production, Phillips is likely in for a payday this offseason, whether that be from the Bills or another franchise. An annual salary of roughly $10 million is the number that’s being thrown around for the 27-year-old, and while it’s possible that he won’t ever match his 2019 production again, he’s also not a player whose impact could be replicated with a random free agent signing.
Phillips is a disruptive pass rusher and is reliable against the run. He also brings energy to Buffalo’s front-seven, and though he accomplishes the role in a different way, one could argue that he’s replaced Kyle Williams as the heart and soul of the Bills’ defensive line.
Buffalo would be wise to retain Phillips’ services, with a three- or four-year, front-loaded contract appearing to be its best option. By giving Phillips significant money when they have significant cap space, the Bills would retain a key contributor while also keeping some money available for a few years down the road, when players like Edmunds, Allen, and Dion Dawkins will need new contracts.
Defensive end Shaq Lawson is also set to hit free agency, and though his production was not as earth-shattering as that of Phillips, he was still incredibly productive in 2019. The 25-year-old set a career-high in sacks with 6.5 and was also a menace at the line of scrimmage, consistently playing well against the run while also batting down two passes.
Like Phillips, Lawson brings energy to Buffalo’s defensive line, with the latter telling ESPN that the two “set the tone” for the team’s line.
Lawson could realistically command $6-8 million on the open market, and given his consistent improvement under head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills would be wise to pay him.
Quinton Spain, Kevin Johnson, and Isaiah McKenzie round out the list of impending free agents whom Buffalo should make a point out of re-signing. Spain played well throughout the 2019 season, starting all 16 games at left guard on an underrated Bills’ offensive line.
Johnson also played well in a rotational role, never looking out of place when asked to spell for Levi Wallace. Though he wouldn’t be a monumental loss, retaining depth at cornerback would not be a bad decision for Buffalo, should Johnson not command a monstrous contract.
A restricted free agent, expect McKenzie to be back with the Bills next season. This bodes well for Buffalo’s offense, as the former Georgia Bulldog added a different dimension to the unit throughout the season. When active, McKenzie was often in motion on offensive plays, either serving as a decoy or taking the ball on end-arounds or alley-oop passes. Don’t be shocked if his role in the Bills’ offense grows next season.
Further clean up salary cap
Though Buffalo sits near the top of the league in salary cap space, there’s still room for the team to improve its financial situation.
While it’s difficult to call anybody a “cap casualty” when the team has nearly $90 million in cap space, don’t be shocked if the Bills part ways with defensive end Trent Murphy this offseason.
Recency bias may suggest that this thought is ludicrous, as Murphy tallied two sacks in each of Buffalo’s final two games of the 2019 season (including its postseason loss).
However, this is the first time that Murphy has made a consistent impact in a Bills’ uniform since inking a three-year, $21 million deal with the team in the 2018 offseason.
Injuries have prevented Murphy from becoming the dominant pass rusher that Buffalo hoped he would become. He appeared in 13 games in the 2018 season, notching just four sacks.
Though he remained healthy throughout the entirety of the 2019 campaign, his pass-rushing impact was relatively minimal. He tallied five sacks in 16 starts. He entered Week 17 with just three.
Murphy is by no means a poor player, and keeping him around certainly wouldn’t be a bad decision on behalf of the Bills. He is, however, set to account for $8.95 million of Buffalo’s salary cap in the 2020 season, according to OverTheCap. As of now, he’s the team’s fifth-highest paid player.
Nine sacks in two seasons is simply not an ideal stat line for a player whose cap hit comes in at roughly $9 million. The Bills could free up over $7 million by releasing Murphy, money it could use to re-sign Shaq Lawson.
Though incredibly unlikely, Tyler Kroft and Ty Nsekhe are also names to watch this offseason. While it’s difficult to foresee either cut happening, it must be noted that Buffalo could free up $5 million and $3.7 million by releasing Kroft and Nsekhe, respectively.
Kroft dealt with injuries throughout his debut season at One Bills Drive, and thus, the team will likely want to have him healthy for a full season before making a decision on his future. Nsekhe platooned with rookie Cody Ford at the right tackle position in 2019, and though Ford will likely be the full-time starter moving forward, Nsekhe is still a valuable depth piece.
Sign Tre’Davious White to an extension
It’s been some time since Buffalo last reset the market at a position.
Whether it’s this offseason or at some point further down the line, expect the team to ultimately reset the cornerback market with the re-signing of White.
Bills fans have become accustomed to White’s excellent play, but even they were a bit surprised with the 24-year-old’s breakout 2019 campaign. He was objectively one of the league’s top cornerbacks, allowing zero touchdowns on nearly 600 snaps in coverage, per Pro Football Focus.
He co-led the league in interceptions with six. He also earned national recognition for his stellar play, earning Pro Bowl and All-Pro honors for the first time in his career.
White has been one of the league’s premier cornerbacks since his rookie campaign, and though backing money trucks into his driveway after a career year may not be an incredibly intelligent decision, he’s given no indication of regression.
He truly deserves to reset the cornerback market, something that could happen as soon as this summer. Miami Dolphins defensive back Xavien Howard is currently the league’s highest-paid corner at $15.1 million annually, a number White will likely supplant upon signing an extension.
Anywhere between $16-17 million per year seems like a realistic number for the reigning All-Pro. White’s extension could ultimately come in at (roughly) 5-years, $82.5 million, and while waiting to extend the former LSU Tiger could financially help Buffalo in the short-term, setting the cornerback market before another team sets a higher bar would likely be a wise move.
Strengthen defense with key signings
It’s almost scary to suggest that the Bills defense could improve this offseason.
The unit has been nothing short of incredible for two consecutive years, finishing second and third in total yardage in the 2018 and 2019 seasons, respectively. The secondary has consistently given headaches to opposing quarterbacks, while the front seven has constantly improved, creating a young, exciting unit that already ranks among the league’s best.
But there’s still room for improvement.
Buffalo would be wise to add some pass-rushing ability to its defense this offseason, especially if it decides to part ways with Trent Murphy.
Jacksonville Jaguars defensive end Yannick Ngakoue is perhaps the best pass rusher on the market, as the 24-year-old has yet to record less than eight sacks in a season. His social media presence would suggest that he’s interested in testing the open market, and if he becomes a free agent, bringing the former Maryland Terrapin to One Bills Drive would likely be near the top of Brandon Beane’s priority list.
Ngakoue would immediately become the best pass-rusher on a defense that is perhaps an elite pass-rusher away from cementing itself as the league’s best. Though his projected annual salary of $17.1 million (per Spotrac) is steep, it’s one that Buffalo can afford.
Pittsburgh Steelers outside linebacker Bud Dupree is another name to look at because if he hits the open market, he could be a solid fit in the Bills’ defense. The 26-year-old tallied a career-high 11.5 sacks in 2019, consistently generating pressure on a dominant Pittsburgh defense that tallied a league-high 54.0 sacks.
Playing as an edge rusher in Pittsburgh’s base 3-4 defensive scheme, Dupree would likely play with his hand in the dirt in Buffalo, becoming a more traditional defensive end in the team’s 4-3 scheme.
He could, however, fill the role vacated by the recently retired Lorenzo Alexander, taking over the team’s starting role at outside linebacker while also serving as a situational down-lineman. Though coverage is far from the strongest part of Dupree’s game, he improved in that facet in 2019.
Though he likely won’t hit free agency, Baltimore Ravens linebacker Patrick Onwuasour would be a solid replacement for Alexander should he and the Bills have mutual interest. A former safety, Onwuasour has played as an inside linebacker in Baltimore since signing as an undrafted free agent in 2016, excelling in coverage and as a situational pass rusher.
An incredible athlete, Onwuasour could switch to outside linebacker in Buffalo. With Onwuasour alongside Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano, the Bills could potentially deploy the league’s most athletic linebacker coups.
Add offensive depth in free agency
In order to take the next step as an organization, Buffalo will need to improve its offense this offseason.
The unit struggled throughout the majority of the 2019 season, effectively wasting a defense that allowed an average of just 16 points per game.
Though he showed promise, Josh Allen is still far from a perfect quarterback. The team lacks considerable depth at key offensive positions and, frankly, is need of firepower.
With that being said, don’t expect Buffalo to invest significant financial capital into its offense this season. As of now, there are not many top-tier offensive free agents available, with A.J. Green and Emmanuel Sanders perhaps serving as the top available players.
While the Bills could certainly use a veteran pass-catcher, neither Green nor Sanders would be particularly smart signings given their respective injury histories. Larry Fitzgerald is also set to become a free agent, and though he would be an on-field and culture fit in Buffalo, it’s safe to assume he’ll retire before he leaves Arizona.
The Bills’ current offense is a solid foundation that is in need of overall development. Allen and running back Devin Singletary will (likely) improve as their careers progress, and thus, the offense will improve, as well. Their receiving corps is well-rounded, and will likely build upon its 2019 numbers in its second year as a cohesive unit.
With that being said, Buffalo should still make additions to its offense in the offseason. A third or fourth receiver and a speedy running back to complement the ever-elusive Singletary would be solid offseason additions.
Draft Laviska Shenault
Don’t expect the Bills to significantly improve their offense through free agency.
However, expect them to do so through the draft.
Offensive playmaker, either at wide receiver or running back, is perhaps the Bills’ biggest need entering the offseason. Throughout his three years at Colorado, all Laviska Shenault did was make play after play.
He caught 149 passes for 1,943 yards and 10 touchdowns throughout his collegiate career, earning All-Pac-12 team honors twice.
To look solely at Shenault’s receiving stats, however, would be to discredit his overall impact on his offense. Colorado used Shenault at nearly every position throughout his three years at Boulder, deploying him from the outside, in the slot, in the backfield, and even as a wildcat quarterback. He finished his collegiate career 2,223 yards from scrimmage and 17 touchdowns.
Shenault is far from your prototypical No. 1 wide receiver, a player who a team can line up on the boundary play after play. What he can be, however, is a No. 1 offensive weapon, a player who can consistently pick up yardage in a variety of ways.
Though Buffalo fans are clamoring for a traditional No. 1 wide receiver, a player like Shenault is perhaps a better fit. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll likes to do creative things with his offensive weapons, and there’s seemingly nothing that Shenault cannot do offensively.
He won’t consistently be lined up against the opposition’s top cornerbacks, but Shenault could be a high-volume player in Buffalo given his versatility. If he’s available when the Bills go on the clock on the first night of the 2020 NFL Draft, Brandon Beane should run to the podium and not look back.