By Nick Wojton / Billswire.usatoday.com
Big score for the anti-analytics groups thanks to the folks at the world-wide leader.
Typically looking at a national outlet’s perception of a small market team can be taken with a grain of salt but you might want the whole container for this one. Using an analytical system that assumes every NFL team finishes with a 4-12 record in 2019, ESPN predicted in that scenario that Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott has the NFL’s highest chance of being fired at 73 percent.
Here’s how ESPN justifies that:
A four-win season would mean two consecutive years of steady decline for the Bills after their first playoff appearance in nearly a generation in 2017, which was McDermott’s first season in charge. Young quarterbacks are expected to make a significant jump in their second full season, so if the Bills’ offense stumbles in 2019, much of the blame probably will be laid at the feet of the coaching staff, not second-year quarterback Josh Allen.
Although not part of the model, the league has seen coaching changes salvage the early careers of Mitchell Trubisky in Chicago and Jared Goff in Los Angeles, so that will be on the minds of Buffalo’s decision-makers.
While ESPN does make valid point in regard to coaching changes in recent years, the opinion seems far off for Buffalo.
McDermott and General Manager Brandon Beane do need Josh Allen to progress in Year 2. However, he’s already some signs from the first half of his rookie season to his second half and he was never a player that was pegged as a Day 1 starter, which is what he ended up being thanks to Nathan Peterman. So Allen’s going to be given time.
Even at 4-12, McDermott has put together one of the NFL’s best defensive units and Beane has assembled a depth of talent on offense. Buffalo lacks offensive superstars, but according to Spotrac, Buffalo will have $53,167,825 in salary cap space next offseason, the sixth-most in the NFL. It’s probably a good bet that McDermott and Beane will get a crack at adding bigger threats and playmakers during the 2020 offseason, especially after completely fixing the franchise’s awful salary cap situation they inherited.
But further breaking down ESPN’s list, there’s some other interesting ones.
Right behind McDermott is former Buffalo bench boss and current Jaguars coach, Doug Marrone, at 71 percent. That seems like an accurate, or more accurate, prediction. The Jags previously were destined for runs at the postseason and if they go 4-12 in 2019, that’d be a second-straight letdown.
Another questionable pick is in third, Dolphins head coach Brian Flores at 67 percent. It’s happened, but is extremely rare for a coach to be fired after one season. And that’s based on the Dolphins going 4-12. With some predictions about Miami ahead of 2019, 4-12 might be a great season for them.