Only 1 of 22 experts thinks Buffalo will return to the playoffs this year.
By Justin DiLoro / Billswire.usatoday.com
The Buffalo Bills are toward the top of a list that they would rather not be on at all.
The Bills are ranked third in a survey of 22 ESPN experts that highlights playoff teams that are the most likely to not return to the postseason in 2018.
Of the 22 experts, 21 voted that Buffalo will vacate their postseason spot for this upcoming season. The two teams ranked “ahead” of the Bills, the Carolina Panthers and Tennessee Titans, received votes from all 22 surveyed experts.
Mike Rodak provided his breakdown of Buffalo’s current situation:
There is some optimism around Buffalo after the Bills drafted Josh Allen seventh overall in April, making him the highest-selected quarterback in franchise history. However, realistic expectations for the team in Allen’s first season might not include getting back to the playoffs after sneaking into the field as a 6-seed in 2017. The Bills sent steady-but-unspectacular quarterback Tyrod Taylor to the Cleveland Browns as part of their maneuvering for Allen, leaving a void at the position in the short term. Whether Allen quickly takes the reins or the starting spot is held by AJ McCarron or Nathan Peterman this season, Buffalo’s offense will have to earn a label as anything more than bottom of the barrel in the league.
Of the 12 playoff teams last season, the Bills have the worst odds to return to the playoffs. In addition, the team is ranked the lowest among playoff teams in ESPN’s Football Playoff Index (FPI), currently holding down the twenty-seventh position in the league. Buffalo finds itself seven positions behind the nearest 2017 playoff participant, the Tennessee Titans.
The Kansas City Chiefs also received a high number of votes, representing low confidence in their return to the playoffs. Twenty of the experts feel as though the Chiefs may fall out of the playoffs next year.
It’s no secret that the Bills roster is one in the midst of change. General manager Brandon Beane and coach Sean McDermott have made several moves to shed the weight of unproductive players over the past year.
However, there is a glimmer of hope that one expert found the team to be talented enough to return to the playoffs. First, the defense looks to be vastly improved over last year’s unit. The improvements to the front seven will hopefully add an attacking dimension that has been lacked on the defensive side of the ball since Jim Schwartz left as defensive coordinator after the 2014 season.
In addition, A.J. McCarron is expected to compare favorably to the production of Tyrod Taylor. The plan is that McCarron can provide the Beane-McDermott regime with a quarterback that more closely fits their vision. Finally, the Bills play in a weak division, one in which they could steal four games from weaker divisional foes (we’re talking Miami and New York).
A solid defense and a capable offense could be enough to prove 21 experts wrong this season.