Three weeks from election day, a Spectrum News/Siena College poll finds Republican Congressman Chris Collins holding a narrow three-point lead over Democrat Nate McMurray in the 27th Congressional District.
Collins holds that narrow lead in a district that has 40,000 more Republicans than Democrats, and favors keeping a Republican majority in the house by 18 percentage points. The poll of likely voters finds Collins is well-known, but not well-liked except among Republicans.
Collins has been indicted for insider trading, and suspended his campaign for a time before starting it up again.
The poll finds McMurray, the Supervisor of Grand Island, gets the support of nearly one-quarter of the Republicans in his district. Independents are evenly divided.
Sienna Pollster Steve Greenberg says this election will probably come down to which party can get its people to turn out.