By Nick Wojton / Billswire.usatoday.com
The Bills (3-1) and Titans (2-2) enter their Week 5 meeting close in the AFC standings. It’s early and some dust needs to settle, but in a few weeks when things start getting tighter, the winner of this game could make all the difference.
There’s one overlying storyline entering this one that could have a big affect on the outcome. But that’s only scratching the surface.
With that, here are seven storylines to follow during the Bills’ battle with the Titans:
How will quarterback situation unfold?
The most obvious one. What is going to happen with the Bills under center?
Buffalo’s No. 1 quarterback in Josh Allen was knocked into the concussion protocol in Week 4 against the Patriots. As of Wednesday, it appears Allen is in the fourth of five stages of the concussion protocol. But that doesn’t mean he’ll be good to go by Sunday.
With the NFL in 2019, the protocol is taken very seriously. Allen has essentially played two-hand touch football early this week. That’s one thing. Getting cleared to potentially take another helmet-to-helmet hit is another.
Allen wasn’t at his best against the Patriots. He was 13-for-28 passing with three interceptions, some of which were pretty bad ones. The second-year pro has played well in the fourth-quarter, though. So you’d like him to be under center over other options.
Matt Barkley is the backup and Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott said this week that both, as of Wednesday, are prepping as if they’re starting. Barkley was 9-for-16 for 127 yards in his brief outing in Week 4 and his game ended with a tipped pass that turned into an interception to end the contest.
Not announcing the injury status fully is an advantage McDermott will likely take all the way until Sunday morning. My money is on Barkley starting.
Could this be a defensive battle again?
Last week the Bills saw a defensive battle despite Tom Brady lining up at quarterback for the Patriots. It was a 16-10 final and good defense from both teams caused sloppy offensive efforts all around.
Could we be in for that once again?
In several categories, the Bills and Titans are very similar. Buffalo is allowing the fifth-lowest points per game at 15.8. The Titans are in fourth at 15.5, behind only the Cowboys (14.0), Bears (11.2) and Patriots (6.8). The Titans also edge-out the Bills on third-down defense, slightly. Buffalo’s keeping teams down to a 31.03 percent success rate on third down, the league’s seventh-best, with the Titans at 30.61 percent, in sixth.
Overall yardage allowed see the Bills ahead by a bit, though. The Bills defense is the No. 2 unit in the league, allowing 280.3 yard per game. The Titans are back at No. 14, allowing 337 yards per game.
Will Bills cause an interception?
The Bills are in a tie with a couple teams for the second-most interceptions thus far in 2019. The Patriots are far ahead with 10 in first place, Josh Allen helped a bit there.
But the Bills might have a tough time finding turnovers this week. While Allen will rarely play it safe, Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota is safe enough for both of them. He’s the only starting quarterback this season in the entire NFL to have not thrown an interception, an impressive feat. That, of course, means he’s not exactly risky, but he does have seven touchdowns to his name.
Last week, Buffalo’s offense did a first. They became the first team to score against the Patriots defense. Can Buffalo’s defense cause the first the pick of Mariota? In a potential defensive standoff, that could be a huge play.
For what it’s worth, in two games against the Bills, Mariota has a 0-2 recird with two interceptions and a fumble.
Does running game success continue?
Overall, the Bills’ running game has been OK this season. At 147.2 rushing yards per game, the Bills average the fourth-most rushing yards among NFL teams. But a lot of that has to do with quarterback Josh Allen. Buffalo’s running backs have been just decent this year.
Frank Gore has led the way through four games, and not just because of Devin Singletary’s hamstring injury. He was doing so when the rookie was healthy, too. Gore is fresh off his first 100-yard outing with the Bills and is now over 15,000 rushing yards for his career. If Gore and the Bills can repeat that effort against a stout Titans defense, that will make things a bit easier for whomever is the Bills’ signal caller.
Plus, Singletary could be trending towards returning. He’s another weapon Buffalo could use.
For all their successes this year, the Titans are only the No. 15 rushing defense in the NFL (103.8).
Dawson Knox’s impact
Quickly in his NFL career, rookie Dawson Knox has impressed. Against the Bengals, he buried defenders en route to setting up the game-winning score for the Bills. Last week against the Patriots, he had a ridiculous lunging catch right in Patrick Chung’s face. And that’s just as a pass catcher. As a blocker, Pro Football Focus has graded him some decent numbers, a 75.7 overall as a run blocker and 75.2 overall as a pass blocker.
Furthermore, the Titans are the fifth-worst team at defending tight ends this season, despite their strong efforts on that side of the ball, according to Pro Football Reference. They’ve allowed three touchdowns, 21 catches and 239 total yards against tight ends this year.
Does a big game for Knox, a Tennessee native, await?
Can the Bills get into backfield?
Last week the Bills did, in fact, get pressure on Tom Brady. But he was not sacked.
That’s been a problem for the Bills in the past. Pressure is good, no doubt about it, but sacks are better. They stall drives by putting an opponent in long-down situations. Plus it helps in the field position battle.
Can the Bills get to Marcus Mariota? He’s not the most mobile QB, but he’s not statue, either. Plus, there’s opportunity. If Buffalo’s defensive front-seven is going to play better than the secondary at some point this season, this could be the week. The Titans allow 4.2 sacks per game this year. That’s the 27th worst number in the league in that category.
After Week 3, the Titans were graded as the sixth-best offensive line in the NFL per Pro Football Focus and this weekend their franchise left tackle Taylor Lewan returns to the fold. But sacks have been a problem and perhaps the problem isn’t just one guy. Buffalo should have the edge.
Will offensive line rebound?
On the flip, can the Bills’ offensive line have a better game than last week? No excuses for Josh Allen launching some of his interceptions, but they all happened when he had pressure right in his face.
In the same aspect of sacks for the Bills, they’ve allowed 2.5 per game, which they’d like to get down. So far Buffalo’s best lineman through four weeks via PFF is Dion Dawkins at a 67.6 overall grade. Rookie Cody Ford has taken his bumps as he has a team-low 56.3 grade. Ty Nsekhe, who’s rotated with Ford, is at 60.3. Not much better.
The likes of Jurell Casey, DaQuan Jones and Cameron Wake are those in the Titans’ front-seven to be worried about, regardless of starting QB.